The Red Sox aren’t really a comfy topic right now. So here’s a second post on the Ryan Howard deal. Fangraphs compares Howard’s contract to other historic WAR (wins above replacement) and figures that a “reasonable” projection for Howard’s contract would have been right around 77 million dollars–far below the 125 million he’s ensured.
They also look more closely at the WAR numbers for top players in their mid-30’s and conclude:
So, you have a one-third chance of being Jim Thome, a one-third chance of being Frank Thomas, and a one-third chance of being Mo Vaughn.
Ryan Howard was paid like he had a 100% chance of being Jim Thome.